Publications

Grasselli, Giacomo; Zangrillo, Alberto; Zanella, Alberto; Antonelli, Massimo; Cabrini, Luca; Castelli, Antonio; Cereda, Danilo; Coluccello, Antonio; Foti, Giuseppe; Fumagalli, Roberto; Iotti, Giorgio; Latronico, Nicola; Lorini, Luca; Merler, Stefano; Natalini, Giuseppe; Piatti, Alessandra; Ranieri, Marco Vito; Scandroglio, Anna Mara; Storti, Enrico; Cecconi, Maurizio; Pesenti, Antonio,

Baseline Characteristics and Outcomes of 1591 Patients Infected With SARS-CoV-2 Admitted to ICUs of the Lombardy Region, Italy,

in «JAMA»,

2020
Zhang, Juanjuan; Litvinova, Maria; Wang, Wei; Wang, Yan; Deng, Xiaowei; Chen, Xinghui; Li, Mei; Zheng, Wen; Yi, Lan; Chen, Xinhua; Wu, Qianhui; Liang, Yuxia; Wang, Xiling; Yang, Juan; Sun, Kaiyuan; Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Wu, Peng; Cowling, Benjamin J; Merler, Stefano; Viboud, Cecile; Vespignani, Alessandro; Ajelli, Marco; Yu, Hongjie,

Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study,

in «THE LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES»,

2020
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Ajelli, Marco; Trentini, Filippo; Marziano, Valentina; Cereda, Danilo; Tirani, Marcello; Diurno, Giulio; Bodina, Annalisa; Barone, Antonio; Crottogini, Lucia; Gramegna, Maria; Melegaro, Alessia; Merler, Stefano,

Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020,

in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,

vol. 25,

n. 12,

2020
Chinazzi, Matteo; Davis, Jessica T; Ajelli, Marco; Gioannini, Corrado; Litvinova, Maria; Merler, Stefano; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Mu, Kunpeng; Rossi, Luca; Sun, Kaiyuan; Viboud, Cécile; Xiong, Xinyue; Yu, Hongjie; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M; Vespignani, Alessandro,

The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak,

in «SCIENCE»,

vol. 368,

n. 6489,

2020

, pp. 395 -

400
Zhang, Juanjuan; Litvinova, Maria; Liang, Yuxia; Wang, Yan; Wang, Wei; Zhao, Shanlu; Wu, Qianhui; Merler, Stefano; Viboud, Cécile; Vespignani, Alessandro; Ajelli, Marco; Yu, Hongjie,

Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China,

in «SCIENCE»,

2020

, pp. eabb8001 -
Deng, Xiaowei; Yang, Juan; Wang, Wei; Wang, Xiling; Zhou, Jiaxin; Chen, Zhiyuan; Li, Jing; Chen, Yinzi; Yan, Han; Zhang, Juanjuan; Zhang, Yongli; Wang, Yan; Qiu, Qi; Gong, Hui; Wei, Xianglin; Wang, Lili; Sun, Kaiyuan; Wu, Peng; Ajelli, Marco; Cowling, Benjamin J; Viboud, Cecile; Yu, Hongjie,

Case fatality risk of the first pandemic wave of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China,

in «CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES»,

2020
Calabrò, Giovanna Elisa; Specchia, Maria Lucia; Boccalini, Sara; Panatto, Donatella; Rizzo, Caterina; Merler, Stefano; Ferriero, Anna Maria; Di Pietro, Maria Luisa; Bonanni, Paolo; de Waure, Chiara,

Strengthening the Evidence-Based Approach to Guiding Effective Influenza Vaccination Policies,

in «VACCINES»,

vol. 8,

n. 3,

2020

, pp. 342 -
Caputo, Beniamino; Russo, Gianluca; Manica, Mattia; Vairo, Francesco; Poletti, Piero; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Merler, Stefano; Scagnolari, Carolina; Solimini, Angelo,

A comparative analysis of the 2007 and 2017 Italian chikungunya outbreaks and implication for public health response,

in «PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES»,

vol. 14,

n. 6,

2020

, pp. e0008159 -
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Vairo, Francesco; Mammone, Alessia; Lanini, Simone; Poletti, Piero; Manica, Mattia; Rosa, Roberto; Caputo, Beniamino; Solimini, Angelo; Torre, Alessandra Della; Scognamiglio, Paola; Zumla, Alimuddin; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Merler, Stefano,

Spatial modes for transmission of chikungunya virus during a large chikungunya outbreak in Italy: a modeling analysis,

in «BMC MEDICINE»,

vol. 18,

n. 1,

2020
Aleta, Alberto; Martín-Corral, David; Pastore y Piontti, Ana; Ajelli, Marco; Litvinova, Maria; Chinazzi, Matteo; Dean, Natalie E.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini Jr, Ira M.; Merler, Stefano; Pentland, Alex; Vespignani, Alessandro; Moro, Esteban; Moreno, Yamir,

Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19,

in «NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR»,

2020
Poletti, Piero; Tirani, Marcello; Cereda, Danilo; Trentini, Filippo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Marziano, Valentina; Buoro, Sabrina; Riboli, Simona; Crottogini, Lucia; Piccarreta, Raffaella; Piatti, Alessandra; Grasselli, Giacomo; Melegaro, Alessia; Gramegna, Maria; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano,

Age-specific SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality ratio and associated risk factors, Italy, February to April 2020,

in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,

vol. 25,

n. 31,

2020
Manica, Mattia; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Filipponi, Federico; Solimini, Angelo; Caputo, Beniamino; Della Torre, Alessandra; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano,

Assessing the risk of autochthonous yellow fever transmission in Lazio, central Italy,

in «PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES»,

vol. 13,

n. 1,

2019

, pp. e0006970 -
Marini, Giovanni; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Marques Toledo, Cecilia A; Teixeira, Mauro; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano,

Effectiveness of Ultra-Low Volume insecticide spraying to prevent dengue in a non-endemic metropolitan area of Brazil,

in «PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 15,

n. 3,

2019

, pp. e1006831 -
Trentini, Filippo; Poletti, Piero; Melegaro, Alessia; Merler, Stefano,

The introduction of ‘No jab, No school’ policy and the refinement of measles immunisation strategies in high-income countries,

in «BMC MEDICINE»,

vol. 17,

n. 1,

2019
Di Ruscio, Francesco; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Bjørnholt, Jørgen Vildershøj; Leegaard, Truls Michael; Moen, Aina Elisabeth Fossum; Merler, Stefano; Freiesleben de Blasio, Birgitte,

Quantifying the transmission dynamics of MRSA in the community and healthcare settings in a low-prevalence country,

in «PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA»,

2019

, pp. 201900959 -
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Minosse, Claudia; Pisapia, Raffaella; Giombini, Emanuela; Mammone, Alessia; Vairo, Francesco; Garbuglia, Anna Rosa; Scognamiglio, Paola; Capobianchi, Maria Rosaria; Merler, Stefano; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Lanini, Simone,

Household transmission and disease transmissibility of a large HAV outbreak in Lazio, Italy, 2016–2017,

in «EPIDEMICS»,

vol. 29,

2019

, pp. 100351 -
Wilke, André B B; Caban-Martinez, Alberto J; Ajelli, Marco; Vasquez, Chalmers; Petrie, William; Beier, John C,

Mosquito Adaptation to the Extreme Habitats of Urban Construction Sites,

in «TRENDS IN PARASITOLOGY»,

vol. 35,

n. 8,

2019

, pp. 607 -

614
Litvinova, Maria; Liu, Quan-Hui; Kulikov, Evgeny S; Ajelli, Marco,

Reactive school closure weakens the network of social interactions and reduces the spread of influenza,

in «PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA»,

vol. 116,

n. 27,

2019

, pp. 13174 -

13181
Lanini, Simone; Ioannidis, John P A; Vairo, Francesco; Pletschette, Michel; Portella, Gina; Di Bari, Virginia; Mammone, Alessia; Pisapia, Raffaella; Merler, Stefano; Nguhuni, Boniface; Langer, Martin; Di Caro, Antonino; Edwards, Sarah J L; Petrosillo, Nicola; Zumla, Alimuddin; Ippolito, Giuseppe,

Non-inferiority versus superiority trial design for new antibiotics in an era of high antimicrobial resistance: the case for post-marketing, adaptive randomised controlled trials,

in «THE LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES»,

vol. 19,

n. 12,

2019

, pp. E444 -

E451
Marziano, Valentina; Poletti, Piero; Trentini, Filippo; Melegaro, Alessia; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano,

Parental vaccination to reduce measles immunity gaps in Italy,

in «ELIFE»,

vol. 8,

2019
Sarubbo, Silvio; Tate, Matthew; De Benedictis, Alessandro; Merler, Stefano; Moritz-Gasser, Sylvie; Herbet, Guillaume; Duffau, Hugues,

Mapping critical cortical hubs and white matter pathways by direct electrical stimulation: An original functional atlas of the human brain,

in «NEUROIMAGE»,

2019

, pp. 116237 -
Marini, Giovanni; Arnoldi, Daniele; Baldacchino, Frederic; Capelli, Gioia; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Merler, Stefano; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Rosà, Roberto,

First report of the influence of temperature on the bionomics and population dynamics of Aedes koreicus, a new invasive alien species in Europe,

in «PARASITES & VECTORS»,

vol. 12,

n. 1,

2019

, pp. 524 -
Sarubbo, Silvio; Tate, Matthew; De Benedictis, Alessandro; Merler, Stefano; Moritz-Gasser, Sylvie; Herbet, Guillaume; Duffau, Hugues,

A normalized dataset of 1821 cortical and subcortical functional responses collected during direct electrical stimulation in patients undergoing awake brain surgery,

in «DATA IN BRIEF»,

2019

, pp. 104892 -
Marchetti, Sabina; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Flem, Elmira; Mirinaviciute, Grazina; Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo; Manfredi, Piero,

Modeling the impact of combined vaccination programs against varicella and herpes zoster in Norway,

in «VACCINE»,

vol. 36,

n. 8,

2018

, pp. 1116 -

1125
Trentini, F.; Poletti, P.; Baldacchino, F.; Drago, A.; Montarsi, F.; Capelli, G.; Rizzoli, A.; Rosà, R.; Rizzo, C.; Merler, S.; Melegaro, A.,

The containment of potential outbreaks triggered by imported Chikungunya cases in Italy: a cost utility epidemiological assessment of vector control measures,

in «SCIENTIFIC REPORTS»,

vol. 8,

n. 1,

2018
Viboud, Cécile; Sun, Kaiyuan; Gaffey, Robert; Ajelli, Marco; Fumanelli, Laura; Merler, Stefano; Zhang, Qian; Chowell, Gerardo; Simonsen, Lone; Vespignani, Alessandro,

The RAPIDD ebola forecasting challenge: Synthesis and lessons learnt,

in «EPIDEMICS»,

vol. 22,

2018

, pp. 13 -

21
Ajelli, Marco; Zhang, Qian; Sun, Kaiyuan; Merler, Stefano; Fumanelli, Laura; Chowell, Gerardo; Simonsen, Lone; Viboud, Cecile; Vespignani, Alessandro,

The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge: Model description and synthetic data generation,

in «EPIDEMICS»,

vol. 22,

2018

, pp. 3 -

12
Melegaro, Alessia; Marziano, Valentina; Del Fava, Emanuele; Poletti, Piero; Tirani, Marcello; Rizzo, Caterina; Merler, Stefano,

The impact of demographic changes, exogenous boosting and new vaccination policies on varicella and herpes zoster in Italy: a modelling and cost-effectiveness study,

in «BMC MEDICINE»,

vol. 16,

n. 1,

2018
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Marques-Toledo, Cecilia A.; Rosà, Roberto; Teixeira, Mauro; Merler, Stefano,

Quantifying the spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic Brazilian metropolis via transmission chain reconstruction,

in «NATURE COMMUNICATIONS»,

vol. 9,

n. 1,

2018
Marziano, Valentina; Poletti, Piero; Béraud, Guillaume; Boëlle, Pierre-Yves; Merler, Stefano; Colizza, Vittoria,

Modeling the impact of changes in day-care contact patterns on the dynamics of varicella transmission in France between 1991 and 2015,

in «PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 14,

n. 8,

2018

, pp. e1006334 -
Piffer, Silvio; Bignamini, Valeria; Rozzanigo, Umberto; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano; Gremes, Elisabetta; Marco Bonifati, Domenico,

Different Clinical Phenotypes of Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: A Subgroup Analysis of 86 Patients,

in «JOURNAL OF STROKE AND CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASES»,

vol. 27,

n. 12,

2018

, pp. 3578 -

3586
Poletti, Piero; Parlamento, Stefano; Fayyisaa, Tafarraa; Feyyiss, Rattaa; Lusiani, Marta; Tsegaye, Ademe; Segafredo, Giulia; Putoto, Giovanni; Manenti, Fabio; Merler, Stefano,

The hidden burden of measles in Ethiopia: how distance to hospital shapes the disease mortality rate,

in «BMC MEDICINE»,

vol. 16,

n. 1,

2018
Sun, Kaiyuan; Zhang, Qian; Pastore-Piontti, Ana; Chinazzi, Matteo; Mistry, Dina; E Dean, Natalie; Patricia Rojas, Diana; Merler, Stefano; Poletti, Piero; Rossi, Luca; Elizabeth Halloran, M; M Longini Jr, Ira; Vespignani, Alessandro,

Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015–2016 ZIKV epidemic,

in «BMC MEDICINE»,

vol. 16,

n. 1,

2018
Liu, Quan-Hui; Ajelli, Marco; Aleta, Alberto; Merler, Stefano; Moreno, Yamir; Vespignani, Alessandro,

Measurability of the epidemic reproduction number in data-driven contact networks,

in «PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA»,

vol. 115,

n. 50,

2018

, pp. 201811115 -
Melegaro, Alessia; Del Fava, Emanuele; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano; Nyamukapa, Constance; Williams, John; Gregson, Simon; Manfredi, Piero,

Social Contact Structures and Time Use Patterns in the Manicaland Province of Zimbabwe,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 12,

n. 1,

2017

, pp. e0170459 -
Dallabona, Monica; Sarubbo, Silvio; Merler, Stefano; Corsini, Francesco; Pulcrano, Giuseppe; Rozzanigo, Umberto; Barbareschi, Mattia; Chioffi, Franco,

Impact of mass effect, tumor location, age, and surgery on the cognitive outcome of patients with high-grade gliomas: a longitudinal study,

in «NEURO ONCOLOGY PRACTICE»,

2017

, pp. npw030 -
Ajelli, Marco; Litvinova, Maria,

Estimating contact patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases in Russia,

in «JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 419,

2017

, pp. 1 -

7
Marini, Giovanni; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Baldacchino, Frederic; Arnoldi, Daniele; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Merler, Stefano; Rosà, Roberto,

The effect of interspecific competition on the temporal dynamics of Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens,

in «PARASITES & VECTORS»,

vol. 10,

n. 1,

2017

, pp. 102 -
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Tagliapietra, Valentina; Perkins, Sarah E; Hauffe, Heidi C; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano; Rizzoli, Annapaola,

Population dynamics of wild rodents induce stochastic fadeouts of a zoonotic pathogen,

in «JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY»,

vol. 86,

2017

, pp. 451 -

459
Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Merler, Stefano; Vespignani, Alessandro,

Perspectives on model forecasts of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa: lessons and the way forward,

in «BMC MEDICINE»,

vol. 15,

n. 1,

2017

, pp. 42 -
Zhang, Qian; Sun, Kaiyuan; Chinazzi, Matteo; Pastore y Piontti, Ana; Dean, Natalie E.; Rojas, Diana Patricia; Merler, Stefano; Mistry, Dina; Poletti, Piero; Rossi, Luca; Bray, Margaret; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M.; Vespignani, Alessandro,

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas,

in «PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA»,

vol. 114,

n. 22,

2017

, pp. 201620161 -
Poletti, Piero; Visintainer, Roberto; Lepri, Bruno; Merler, Stefano,

The interplay between individual social behavior and clinical symptoms in small clustered groups,

in «BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES»,

vol. 17,

n. 1,

2017
Marangi, Luigi; Mirinaviciute, Grazina; Flem, Elmira; Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Freiesleben de Blasio, Birgitte; Manfredi, Piero,

The natural history of varicella zoster virus infection in Norway: Further insights on exogenous boosting and progressive immunity to herpes zoster,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 12,

n. 5,

2017

, pp. e0176845 -
Trentini, Filippo; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano; Melegaro, Alessia,

Measles immunity gaps and the progress towards elimination: a multi-country modelling analysis,

in «THE LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES»,

vol. 17,

n. 10,

2017

, pp. 1089 -

1097
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Trentini, Filippo; Poletti, Piero; Baldacchino, Frederic Alexandre; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano; Melegaro, Alessia,

Effectiveness and economic assessment of routine larviciding for prevention of chikungunya and dengue in temperate urban settings in Europe,

in «PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES»,

vol. 11,

n. 9,

2017

, pp. e0005918 -
Marini, Giovanni; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano,

First outbreak of Zika virus in the continental United States: a modelling analysis,

in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,

vol. 22,

n. 37,

2017
Marziano, Valentina; Pugliese, Andrea; Merler, Stefano; Ajelli, Marco,

Detecting a Surprisingly Low Transmission Distance in the Early Phase of the 2009 Influenza Pandemic,

in «SCIENTIFIC REPORTS»,

vol. 7,

n. 1,

2017
Ajelli, Marco; Moise, Imelda K; Hutchings, Tricia Caroline S G; Brown, Scott C; Kumar, Naresh; Johnson, Neil F; Beier, John C,

Host outdoor exposure variability affects the transmission and spread of Zika virus: Insights for epidemic control,

in «PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES»,

vol. 11,

n. 9,

2017

, pp. e0005851 -
Manica, Mattia; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Filipponi, Federico; Solimini, Angelo; Caputo, Beniamino; Della Torre, Alessandra; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano,

Transmission dynamics of the ongoing chikungunya outbreak in Central Italy: from coastal areas to the metropolitan city of Rome, summer 2017,

in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,

vol. 22,

n. 44,

2017
Ajelli, Marco,

Modeling mosquito-borne diseases in complex urban environments,

in «ACTA TROPICA»,

vol. 176,

2017

, pp. 332 -

334
Fumanelli, Laura; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano; Ferguson, Neil M; Cauchemez, Simon,

Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics,

in «PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 12,

n. 1,

2016

, pp. e1004681 -
Betta, Monica; Laurino, Marco; Pugliese, Andrea; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Landi, Alberto; Manfredi, Piero,

Perspectives on optimal control of varicella and herpes zoster by mass routine varicella vaccination,

in «PROCEEDINGS - ROYAL SOCIETY. BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES»,

vol. 283,

n. 1826,

2016

, pp. 20160054 -
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano; Manfredi, Piero,

The Epidemiology of Herpes Zoster After Varicella Immunization Under Different Biological Hypotheses: Perspectives From Mathematical Modeling,

in «AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY»,

2016

, pp. kwv240 -
Merler, Stefano; Ajelli, Marco; Fumanelli, Laura; Parlamento, Stefano; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Dean, Natalie E; Putoto, Giovanni; Carraro, Dante; Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Vespignani, Alessandro,

Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination,

in «PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES»,

vol. 10,

n. 11,

2016

, pp. e0005093 -
Ciavarella, Constanze; Fumanelli, Laura; Merler, Stefano; Cattuto, Ciro; Ajelli, Marco,

School closure policies at municipality level for mitigating influenza spread: a model-based evaluation,

in «BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES»,

vol. 16,

n. 1,

2016

, pp. 576 -
Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano; Fumanelli, Laura; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Dean, Natalie E; Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Vespignani, Alessandro,

Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis,

in «BMC MEDICINE»,

vol. 14,

n. 1,

2016

, pp. 130 -
Merler, Stefano,

Effects of clustered transmission on epidemic growth Comment on "Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review" by Gerardo Chowell et al,

in «PHYSICS OF LIFE REVIEWS»,

vol. 18,

2016

, pp. 112 -

113
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Baldacchino, Frédéric Alexandre; Metz, Markus; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Pugliese, Andrea; Rosà, Roberto; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano,

Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae),

in «PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES»,

vol. 10,

n. 6,

2016

, pp. e0004762 -
Sarubbo, Silvio; De Benedictis, Alessandro; Merler, Stefano; Mandonnet, Emmanuel; Barbareschi, Mattia; Dallabona, Monica; Chioffi, Franco; Duffau, Hugues,

Structural and functional integration between dorsal and ventral language streams as revealed by blunt dissection and direct electrical stimulation,

in «HUMAN BRAIN MAPPING»,

vol. 37,

n. 11,

2016

, pp. 3858-3872 -

3872
Marini, Giovanni; Poletti, Piero; Giacobini, Mario; Pugliese, Andrea; Merler, Stefano; Rosà, Roberto,

The Role of Climatic and Density Dependent Factors in Shaping Mosquito Population Dynamics: The Case of Culex pipiens in Northwestern Italy,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 11,

n. 4,

2016

, pp. e0154018 -
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Baldacchino, Frederic; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano,

Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations,

in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,

vol. 21,

n. 15,

2016
Clamer, Valentina; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Fumanelli, Laura; Rizzo, Caterina; Pugliese, Andrea,

Estimating transmission probability in schools for the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Italy,

in «THEORETICAL BIOLOGY AND MEDICAL MODELLING»,

vol. 13,

n. 1,

2016

, pp. 19 -
Brisson, Marc; Bénard, Élodie; Drolet, Mélanie; Bogaards, Johannes A; Baussano, Iacopo; Vänskä, Simopekka; Jit, Mark; Boily, Marie Claude; Smith, Megan A; Berkhof, Johannes; Canfell, Karen; Chesson, Harrell W; Burger, Emily A; Choi, Yoon H; Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben De; Vlas, Sake J. De; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Hontelez, Jan A. C; Horn, Johannes; Jepsen, Martin R; Kim, Jane J; Lazzarato, Fulvio; Matthijsse, Suzette M; Mikolajczyk, Rafael; Pavelyev, Andrew; Pillsbury, Matthew; Shafer, Leigh Anne; Tully, Stephen P; Turner, Hugo C; Usher, Cara; Walsh, Cathal,

Population-level impact, herd immunity, and elimination after human papillomavirus vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of predictions from transmission-dynamic models,

in «THE LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH»,

vol. 1,

n. 1,

2016

, pp. e8 -

e17
S Merler; M Ajelli; L Fumanelli; MFC Gomes; A Pastore y Piontti; L Rossi; DL Chao; IM Longini Jr; ME Halloran; A Vespignani,

Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis,

in «THE LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES»,

vol. 15,

n. 2,

2015

, pp. 204 -

211
Poletti P; Merler S; Ajelli M; Manfredi P; Munywoki PK; Nokes DJ; Melegaro A,

Evaluating vaccination strategies for reducing infant respiratory syncytial virus infection in low-income settings,

in «BMC MEDICINE»,

vol. 13,

n. 1,

2015

, pp. 49 -
Marziano V; Poletti P; Guzzetta G; Ajelli M; Manfredi P; Merler S,

The impact of demographic changes on the epidemiology of herpes zoster: Spain as a case study,

in «PROCEEDINGS - ROYAL SOCIETY. BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES»,

vol. 282,

n. 1804,

2015

, pp. 20142509 -
Guzzetta G; Ajelli M; Yang Z; Mukasa LM; Patil N; Bates JH; Kirschner DE; Merler S,

Effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis control in Arkansas,

in «JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 380,

2015

, pp. 238 -

246
Sarubbo, Silvio; De Benedictis, Alessandro; Merler, Stefano; Mandonnet, Emmanuel; Balbi, Sergio; Granieri, Enrico; Duffau, Hugues,

Towards a functional atlas of human white matter,

in «HUMAN BRAIN MAPPING»,

vol. 36,

n. 8,

2015

, pp. 3117 -

3136
Ajelli, Marco; Parlamento, Stefano; Bome, David; Kebbi, Atiba; Atzori, Andrea; Frasson, Clara; Putoto, Giovanni; Carraro, Dante; Merler, Stefano,

The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak in Pujehun, Sierra Leone: epidemiology and impact of interventions,

in «BMC MEDICINE»,

vol. 13,

n. 1,

2015

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Merler S.; Ajelli M.,

Deciphering the relative weights of demographic transition and vaccination in the decrease of measles incidence in Italy,

in «PROCEEDINGS - ROYAL SOCIETY. BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES»,

vol. 281,

n. 1777,

2014

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Giorgio Guzzetta; Luca Faustini; Donatella Panatto; Roberto Gasparini; Piero Manfredi,

The impact of HPV female immunization in Italy: model based predictions,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 9,

n. 3,

2014
M. Ajelli; S. Merler; L. Fumanelli; A. Bella; C. Rizzo,

Estimating measles transmission potential in Italy over the period 2010-2011,

in «ANNALI DELL'ISTITUTO SUPERIORE DI SANITÀ»,

vol. 50,

n. 4,

2014
Marco Ajelli; Piero Poletti; Alessia Melegaro; Stefano Merler,

The role of different social contexts in shaping influenza transmission during the 2009 pandemic,

in «SCIENTIFIC REPORTS»,

vol. 4,

2014
G. Guzzetta; P. Poletti; E. Del Fava; M. Ajelli; G. Scalia Tomba; S. Merler; P. Manfredi,

Hope-Simpson's Progressive Immunity Hypothesis as a Possible Explanation for Herpes Zoster Incidence Data,

in «AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY»,

vol. 177,

n. 10,

2013

, pp. 1134 -

1142
Piero Poletti;Alessia Melegaro;Marco Ajelli;Emanuele del Fava;Giorgio Guzzetta;Luca Faustini;Giampaolo Scalia Tomba;Pierluigi Lopalco;Caterina Rizzo;Stefano Merler;Piero Manfredi,

Perspectives on the Impact of Varicella Immunization on Herpes Zoster. A Model-Based Evaluation from Three European Countries,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 8,

2013

, pp. e60732 -
Merler S.; Ajelli M.; Camilloni B.; Puzelli S.; Bella A.; Rota M.C.; Tozzi A.E.; Muraca M.; Meledandri M.; Iorio A.M.; Donatelli I.; Rizzo C,

Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1pdm in Italy: Age, Risk and Population Susceptibility,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 8,

n. 10,

2013

, pp. e74785 -
S Merler; M Ajelli;L Fumanelli; A Vespignani,

Containing the accidental laboratory escape of potential pandemic influenza viruses,

in «BMC MEDICINE»,

vol. 11,

2013

, pp. 252 -
G. Guzzetta; D. Kirschner,

The Roles of Immune Memory and Aging in Protective Immunity and Endogenous Reactivation of Tuberculosis,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 8,

n. 4,

2013

, pp. e60425 -
S. Merler; G. Jurman,

A Combinatorial Model of Malware Diffusion via Bluetooth Connections,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 8,

n. 3,

2013

, pp. e59468 -
L. Fumanelli; P. Magal; D. Xiao; X. Yu,

Qualitative analysis of a model for co-culture of bacteria and amoebae,

in «MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING»,

vol. 9,

n. 2,

2012

, pp. 259 -

279
P. Poletti; M. Ajelli; S. Merler,

Risk perception and effectiveness of uncoordinated behavioral responses in an emerging epidemic,

in «MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES»,

vol. 238,

n. 2,

2012

, pp. 80 -

89
L. Fumanelli; M. Ajelli; P. Manfredi; A. Vespignani; S. Merler,

Inferring the Structure of Social Contacts from Demographic Data in the Analysis of Infectious Diseases Spread,

in «PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 8,

n. 9,

2012

, pp. e1002673 -
Alberto d’Onofrio; Piero Manfredi; Piero Poletti,

The interplay of public intervention and private choices in determining the outcome of vaccination programmes,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 7,

n. 10,

2012
M. Ajelli; S. Merler,

Transmission Potential and Design of Adequate Control Measures for Marburg Hemorrhagic Fever,

in «PLOS ONE»,

2012
M. Ajelli; S. Merler; A. Pugliese; C. Rizzo,

Model predictions and evaluation of possible control strategies for the 2009 A/H1N1v influenza pandemic in Italy,

in «EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION»,

vol. 139,

n. 1,

2011

, pp. 68 -

79
M. Ajelli; L. Fumanelli; P. Manfredi; S. Merler,

Spatiotemporal dynamics of viral hepatitis A in Italy,

in «THEORETICAL POPULATION BIOLOGY»,

vol. 79,

n. 1-2,

2011

, pp. 1 -

11
L. Fumanelli; M. Iannelli; H. A. Janjua; O. Jousson,

Mathematical modeling of bacterial virulence and host-pathogen interactions in the Dictyostelium/Pseudomonas system,

in «JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 270,

n. 1,

2011

, pp. 19 -

24
P. Poletti; M. Ajelli; S. Merler,

The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 6,

n. 2,

2011

, pp. e16460 -
C. Rizzo; M. Ajelli; S. Merler; A. Pugliese; I. Barbetta; S. Salmaso; P. Manfredi,

Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the 1918-19 pandemic influenza in Florence, Italy,

in «VACCINE»,

vol. 29,

n. S2,

2011

, pp. B27 -

B32
Poletti P.; Messeri G.; Ajelli M.; Vallorani R.; Rizzo C.; Merler S.,

Transmission potential of Chikungunya virus and control measures: the case of Italy,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 6,

n. 5,

2011

, pp. e18860 -
M. Ajelli; A. Pugliese; S. Merler; S. Declich; C. Rizzo,

Evaluation of model prediction during the early phase of the 2009 inﬂuenza pandemic in Italy,

in «INFLUENZA AND OTHER RESPIRATORY VIRUSES»,

vol. 5,

n. Suppl. 1,

2011

, pp. 222 -

226
S. Merler; M. Ajelli; A. Pugliese; N.M. Ferguson,

Determinants of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Europe: implications for real-time modelling,

in «PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 7,

n. 9,

2011
G. Guzzetta; M. Ajelli; Z. Yang; S. Merler; C. Furlanello; D. Kirschner,

Modeling socio-demography to capture tuberculosis transmission dynamics in a low burden setting,

in «JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 289,

2011

, pp. 197 -

205
A. d'Onofrio; P. Manfredi; P. Poletti,

The impact of vaccine side effects on the natural history of immunization programmes: An imitation-game approach,

in «JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 273,

n. 1,

2011

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71
Stefano Merler; Marco Ajelli,

The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza.,

in «PROCEEDINGS - ROYAL SOCIETY. BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES»,

vol. 277,

n. 1681,

2010

, pp. 557 -

565
M. Ajelli; B. Goncalves; D. Balcan; V. Colizza; H. Hu; J.J. Ramasco; S. Merler; A. Vespignani,

Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models,

in «BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES»,

vol. 10,

2010

, pp. 190 -

202
S. Merler; M. Ajelli,

Human mobility and population heterogeneity in the spread of an epidemic,

in «PROCEDIA COMPUTER SCIENCE»,

vol. 1,

n. 1,

2010

, pp. 2237 -

2244
F. Iozzi; F. Trusiano; M. Chinazzi; F. Billari; E. Zagheni; S. Merler; M. Ajelli; E. Del Fava; P. Manfredi,

Little-Italy: an Agent-Based Approach to the Estimation of Contact Patterns. Fitting Predicted Matrices to Serological Data.,

in «PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 6,

n. 12,

2010

, pp. e1001021 -
G. Guzzetta; G. Jurman; C. Furlanello,

A machine learning pipeline for quantitative phenotype prediction from genotype data,

in «BMC BIOINFORMATICS»,

vol. 11,

n. Suppl 8,

2010

, pp. S3 -
Angelini, P; Bellini, R; Bevilacqua, L; Bianco, C; Biondi, E; Dottori, M; Francia, F; Frasca, G; Gargiulo, S; Ghiselli, F; Majori, G; Merler, S; Palazzi, M; Po, C; Ragazzi, D; Rizzo, C; Samorè, T; Tamba, M; Venturelli, C.,

Chikungunya virus in North-Eastern Italy: a seroprevalence survey,

in «AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE»,

vol. 82,

n. 3,

2010

, pp. 508 -

511
Stefano Merler; Marco Ajelli; Caterina Rizzo,

Age-prioritized use of antivirals during an influenza pandemic.,

in «BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES»,

vol. 9,

2009

, pp. 117 -

117
Piero Poletti; Bruno Caprile; Marco Ajelli; Andrea Pugliese; Stefano Merler,

Spontaneous behavioural changes in response to epidemics.,

in «JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 260,

n. 1,

2009

, pp. 31 -

40
Marco Ajelli; Stefano Merler,

An individual-based model of hepatitis A transmission.,

in «JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 259,

n. 3,

2009

, pp. 478 -

488
Giorgio Guzzetta; Piero Manfredi; R. Gasparini; D. Panatto; W.J. Edmunds,

On the relationship between meningococcal transmission dynamics and disease: Remarks on humoral immunity.,

in «VACCINE»,

vol. 27,

n. 25/26,

2009

, pp. 3429 -

3434
P. Manfredi; P. della Posta; A. d'Onofrio; E. Salinelli; F. Centrone; C. Meo; P. Poletti,

Optimal vaccination choice, vaccination games, and rational exemption: an appraisal,

in «VACCINE»,

vol. 28,

n. 1,

2009

, pp. 98 -

109
Merler, Stefano; Poletti, Piero; Ajelli, Marco; Caprile, Bruno Giovanni; P., Manfredi,

Coinfection can trigger multiple pandemic waves,

in «JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 254,

n. 2,

2008

, pp. 499 -

507
M. Ciofi degli Atti; S. Merler; C. Rizzo; M. Ajelli; M. Massari; P. Manfredi; C. Furlanello; G. Scalia Tomba; M. Iannelli,

Mitigation measures for pandemic influenza in Italy: an individual based model considering different scenarios,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 3,

n. 3,

2008

, pp. e1790 -
M. Ajelli; S. Merler,

The Impact of the Unstructured Contacts Component in Influenza Pandemic Modeling,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 3,

n. 1,

2008

, pp. e1519 -
A. Barla; G. Jurman; S. Riccadonna; M. Chierici; S. Merler; C. Furlanello,

Machine learning methods for predictive proteomics,

in «BRIEFINGS IN BIOINFORMATICS»,

vol. 9,

n. 2,

2008

, pp. 119 -

128
G. Jurman; S. Merler; A. Barla; S. Paoli; A. Galea; C. Furlanello,

Algebraic stability indicators for ranked lists in molecular profiling,

in «BIOINFORMATICS»,

vol. 24,

n. 2,

2008

, pp. 258 -

264
S. Paoli; G. Jurman; D. Albanese; S. Merler; C. Furlanello,

Integrating gene expression profiling and clinical data,

in «INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING»,

vol. 47,

n. 1,

2008

, pp. 58 -

69
M. Ajelli; M. Iannelli; P. Manfredi; M.L. Ciofi degli Atti,

Basic mathematical models for the temporal dynamics of HAV in medium-endemicity Italian areas,

in «VACCINE»,

vol. 26,

n. 13,

2008

, pp. 1697 -

1707
Marta Luisa Ciofi degli Atti; Caterina Rizzo; Antonino Bella; Marco Massari; Mimmo Iannelli; Antonella Lunelli; Andrea Pugliese; Jordi Ripoll; Piero Manfredi; Giampaolo Scalia Tomba; Stefano Merler; Giuseppe Jurman; Cesare Furlanello,

Modelling scenarios of diffusion and control of pandemic influenza, Italy,

in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,

vol. 12,

n. 1,

2007

, pp. E070104.2 -
S. Riccadonna; G. Jurman; S. Merler; S. Paoli; A. Quattrone; C. Furlanello.,

Supervised classification of combined copy number and gene expression data.,

in «JOURNAL OF INTEGRATIVE BIOINFORMATICS»,

vol. 4,

n. 3,

2007

, pp. 74 -
M. Cannataro; A. Barla; R. Flor; A. Gallo; G. Jurman; S. Merler; S. Paoli; G. Tradigo; P. Veltri; C. Furlanello,

A grid environment for high-throughput proteomics.,

in «IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON NANOBIOSCIENCE»,

vol. 6,

n. 2,

2007

, pp. 117 -

123
S. Merler; B. Caprile; C. Furlanello.,

Parallelizing AdaBoost by weights dynamics.,

in «COMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS & DATA ANALYSIS»,

vol. 51,

n. 5,

2007

, pp. 2487 -

2498
C. Furlanello; S. Merler; G. Jurman.,

Combining feature selection and DTW for time-varying functional genomics,

in «IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SIGNAL PROCESSING»,

vol. 54,

n. 6,

2006

, pp. 2436 -

2443
S. Merler; G. Jurman,

Terminated Ramp - Support Vector Machine: a nonparametric data dependent kernel,

in «NEURAL NETWORKS»,

vol. 19,

2006

, pp. 1597 -

1611
M. Neteler; D. Grasso; I. Michelazzi; L. Miori; S. Merler; C. Furlanello,

An integrated toolbox for image registration, fusion and classification,

in «INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOINFORMATICS»,

2005

, pp. 51 -

61
C. Furlanello; M. Serafini; S. Merler; G. Jurman,

Semisupervised Learning for Molecular Profiling,

in «IEEE/ACM TRANSACTIONS ON COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY AND BIOINFORMATICS»,

2005

, pp. 110 -

118
S. Merler; B. Caprile; C. Furlanello,

Bias-Variance Control via Hard Points Shaving,

in «INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PATTERN RECOGNITION AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE»,

vol. 18,

n. 5,

2004

, pp. 891 -

903
C. Furlanello; M. Serafini; S. Merler; G. Jurman,

Methods for predictive classification and molecular profiling from DNA microarray data,

in «ITALIAN HEART JOURNAL»,

vol. 5,

n. 1,

2004

, pp. 199 -

202
Stefano Merler; Cesare Furlanello; Barbara Larcher; Andrea Sboner,

Automatic model selection in cost-sensitive boosting,

in «INFORMATION FUSION»,

vol. 4,

n. 1,

2003

, pp. 3 -

10
Stefano Merler; Bruno Caprile; Cesare Furlanello,

Bias-Variance Control via Hard Points Shaving,

in «INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PATTERN RECOGNITION AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE»,

vol. 18,

2003
Cesare Furlanello; Maria Serafini; Stefano Merler; Giuseppe Jurman,

Entropy-based gene ranking without selection bias for the predictive classification of microarray data,

in «BMC BIOINFORMATICS»,

2003

, pp. 54 -

73
Annamaria Rizzoli; Stefano Merler; Cesare Furlanello; C. Chemini; C. Genchi,

Geographical Information Systems and Bootstrap Aggregation (Bagging) of Tree-Based Classifiers for Lyme Disease Risk Assessment in Trentino, Italian Alps,

in «JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY»,

2002

, pp. 485 -

492
Cesare Furlanello; Stefano Merler; Stefano Menegon; S. Mancuso; G. Bertiato,

New WEBGIS technologies for geolocation of epidemiological data: an application for the surveillance of the risk of Lyme borreliosis disease,

in «GIORNALE ITALIANO DI ARITMOLOGIA E CARDIOSTIMOLAZIONE»,

2002

, pp. 241 -

245
I. Cattadori; Stefano Merler; P.J. Hudson,

Searching for Mechanisms of Synchrony in Spatially Structured Gamebird Populations,

in «JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY»,

2000

, pp. 620 -

638
I. Cattadori; P.J. Hudson; Stefano Merler; Annamaria Rizzoli,

Synchrony, scale and temporal dynamics of rock partridge populations in the Dolomite,

in «JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY»,

1999

, pp. 540 -

549
Cesare Furlanello; Diego Giuliani; Edmondo Trentin; Stefano Merler,

Speaker Normalization and Model Selection of Combined Neural Nets,

in «CONNECTION SCIENCE»,

vol. 9,

n. 1,

1997

, pp. 31 -

50
Stefano Merler; Cesare Furlanello,

Selection of Tree-Based Classifiers with the Bootstrap 632+ Rule,

in «BIOMETRICAL JOURNAL»,

1997

, pp. 369 -

382
C. Chemini; Annamaria Rizzoli; Stefano Merler; Cesare Furlanello; C. Genchi,

Ixodes Ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae) Infestation on Roe Deer (Capreolus Capreolus) in Trentino, Italian Alps,

in «PARASSITOLOGIA»,

vol. 39,

1997

, pp. 59 -

63
Stefano Merler; Cesare Furlanello; C. Chemini; G. Nicolini,

Classification Tree Methods for Analysis of Mesoscale Distribution of Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Trentino, Italian Alps,

in «JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY»,

1996

, pp. 887 -

893

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