Giorgio Guzzetta

Researcher

E-mail:
Phone: 0461314520
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Research interests

Infectious diseases: epidemiology and mathematical/computational modelling;

Publications

Guzzetta, Giorgio; Riccardo, Flavia; Marziano, Valentina; Poletti, Piero; Trentini, Filippo; Bella, Antonino; Andrianou, Xanthi; Del Manso, Martina; Fabiani, Massimo; Bellino, Stefania; Boros, Stefano; Urdiales, Alberto Mateo; Vescio, Maria Fenicia; Piccioli, Andrea; Brusaferro, Silvio; Rezza, Giovanni; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano,

Impact of a Nationwide Lockdown on SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility, Italy,

in «EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES»,

vol. 27,

n. 1,

2021
Marziano, Valentina; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Boccuni, Fabio; Riccardo, Flavia; Bella, Antonino; Poletti, Piero; Trentini, Filippo; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Brusaferro, Silvio; Rezza, Giovanni; Iavicoli, Sergio; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano,

Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown,

in «PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA»,

vol. 118,

n. 4,

2021

, pp. e2019617118 -
Poletti, Piero; Tirani, Marcello; Cereda, Danilo; Trentini, Filippo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Sabatino, Giuliana; Marziano, Valentina; Castrofino, Ambra; Grosso, Francesca; Del Castillo, Gabriele; Piccarreta, Raffaella; Andreassi, Aida; Melegaro, Alessia; Gramegna, Maria; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano,

Association of Age With Likelihood of Developing Symptoms and Critical Disease Among Close Contacts Exposed to Patients With Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Italy,

in «JAMA NETWORK OPEN»,

vol. 4,

n. 3,

2021

, pp. e211085 -
Trentini, Filippo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Galli, Margherita; Zardini, Agnese; Manenti, Fabio; Putoto, Giovanni; Marziano, Valentina; Gamshie, Worku Nigussa; Tsegaye, Ademe; Greblo, Alessandro; Melegaro, Alessia; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano; Poletti, Piero,

Modeling the interplay between demography, social contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the South West Shewa Zone of Oromia Region, Ethiopia,

in «BMC MEDICINE»,

vol. 19,

n. 1,

2021

, pp. 89 -
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Ajelli, Marco; Trentini, Filippo; Marziano, Valentina; Cereda, Danilo; Tirani, Marcello; Diurno, Giulio; Bodina, Annalisa; Barone, Antonio; Crottogini, Lucia; Gramegna, Maria; Melegaro, Alessia; Merler, Stefano,

Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020,

in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,

vol. 25,

n. 12,

2020
Caputo, Beniamino; Russo, Gianluca; Manica, Mattia; Vairo, Francesco; Poletti, Piero; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Merler, Stefano; Scagnolari, Carolina; Solimini, Angelo,

A comparative analysis of the 2007 and 2017 Italian chikungunya outbreaks and implication for public health response,

in «PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES»,

vol. 14,

n. 6,

2020

, pp. e0008159 -
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Vairo, Francesco; Mammone, Alessia; Lanini, Simone; Poletti, Piero; Manica, Mattia; Rosa, Roberto; Caputo, Beniamino; Solimini, Angelo; Torre, Alessandra Della; Scognamiglio, Paola; Zumla, Alimuddin; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Merler, Stefano,

Spatial modes for transmission of chikungunya virus during a large chikungunya outbreak in Italy: a modeling analysis,

in «BMC MEDICINE»,

vol. 18,

n. 1,

2020
Poletti, Piero; Tirani, Marcello; Cereda, Danilo; Trentini, Filippo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Marziano, Valentina; Buoro, Sabrina; Riboli, Simona; Crottogini, Lucia; Piccarreta, Raffaella; Piatti, Alessandra; Grasselli, Giacomo; Melegaro, Alessia; Gramegna, Maria; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano,

Age-specific SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality ratio and associated risk factors, Italy, February to April 2020,

in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,

vol. 25,

n. 31,

2020
Riccardo, Flavia; Ajelli, Marco; Andrianou, Xanthi D; Bella, Antonino; Del Manso, Martina; Fabiani, Massimo; Bellino, Stefania; Boros, Stefano; Urdiales, Alberto Mateo; Marziano, Valentina; Rota, Maria Cristina; Filia, Antonietta; D'Ancona, Fortunato; Siddu, Andrea; Punzo, Ornella; Trentini, Filippo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Stefanelli, Paola; Castrucci, Maria Rita; Ciervo, Alessandra; Di Benedetto, Corrado; Tallon, Marco; Piccioli, Andrea; Brusaferro, Silvio; Rezza, Giovanni; Merler, Stefano; Pezzotti, Patrizio,

Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases and estimates of the reproductive numbers 1 month into the epidemic, Italy, 28 January to 31 March 2020,

in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,

vol. 25,

n. 49,

2020
Manica, Mattia; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Filipponi, Federico; Solimini, Angelo; Caputo, Beniamino; Della Torre, Alessandra; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano,

Assessing the risk of autochthonous yellow fever transmission in Lazio, central Italy,

in «PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES»,

vol. 13,

n. 1,

2019

, pp. e0006970 -
Marini, Giovanni; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Marques Toledo, Cecilia A; Teixeira, Mauro; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano,

Effectiveness of Ultra-Low Volume insecticide spraying to prevent dengue in a non-endemic metropolitan area of Brazil,

in «PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 15,

n. 3,

2019

, pp. e1006831 -
Di Ruscio, Francesco; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Bjørnholt, Jørgen Vildershøj; Leegaard, Truls Michael; Moen, Aina Elisabeth Fossum; Merler, Stefano; Freiesleben de Blasio, Birgitte,

Quantifying the transmission dynamics of MRSA in the community and healthcare settings in a low-prevalence country,

in «PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA»,

2019

, pp. 201900959 -
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Minosse, Claudia; Pisapia, Raffaella; Giombini, Emanuela; Mammone, Alessia; Vairo, Francesco; Garbuglia, Anna Rosa; Scognamiglio, Paola; Capobianchi, Maria Rosaria; Merler, Stefano; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Lanini, Simone,

Household transmission and disease transmissibility of a large HAV outbreak in Lazio, Italy, 2016–2017,

in «EPIDEMICS»,

vol. 29,

2019

, pp. 100351 -
Marini, Giovanni; Arnoldi, Daniele; Baldacchino, Frederic; Capelli, Gioia; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Merler, Stefano; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Rosà, Roberto,

First report of the influence of temperature on the bionomics and population dynamics of Aedes koreicus, a new invasive alien species in Europe,

in «PARASITES & VECTORS»,

vol. 12,

n. 1,

2019

, pp. 524 -
Marchetti, Sabina; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Flem, Elmira; Mirinaviciute, Grazina; Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo; Manfredi, Piero,

Modeling the impact of combined vaccination programs against varicella and herpes zoster in Norway,

in «VACCINE»,

vol. 36,

n. 8,

2018

, pp. 1116 -

1125
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Marques-Toledo, Cecilia A.; Rosà, Roberto; Teixeira, Mauro; Merler, Stefano,

Quantifying the spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic Brazilian metropolis via transmission chain reconstruction,

in «NATURE COMMUNICATIONS»,

vol. 9,

n. 1,

2018
Marini, Giovanni; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Baldacchino, Frederic; Arnoldi, Daniele; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Merler, Stefano; Rosà, Roberto,

The effect of interspecific competition on the temporal dynamics of Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens,

in «PARASITES & VECTORS»,

vol. 10,

n. 1,

2017

, pp. 102 -
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Tagliapietra, Valentina; Perkins, Sarah E; Hauffe, Heidi C; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano; Rizzoli, Annapaola,

Population dynamics of wild rodents induce stochastic fadeouts of a zoonotic pathogen,

in «JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY»,

vol. 86,

2017

, pp. 451 -

459
Marangi, Luigi; Mirinaviciute, Grazina; Flem, Elmira; Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Freiesleben de Blasio, Birgitte; Manfredi, Piero,

The natural history of varicella zoster virus infection in Norway: Further insights on exogenous boosting and progressive immunity to herpes zoster,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 12,

n. 5,

2017

, pp. e0176845 -
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Trentini, Filippo; Poletti, Piero; Baldacchino, Frederic Alexandre; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano; Melegaro, Alessia,

Effectiveness and economic assessment of routine larviciding for prevention of chikungunya and dengue in temperate urban settings in Europe,

in «PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES»,

vol. 11,

n. 9,

2017

, pp. e0005918 -
Marini, Giovanni; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano,

First outbreak of Zika virus in the continental United States: a modelling analysis,

in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,

vol. 22,

n. 37,

2017
Manica, Mattia; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Filipponi, Federico; Solimini, Angelo; Caputo, Beniamino; Della Torre, Alessandra; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano,

Transmission dynamics of the ongoing chikungunya outbreak in Central Italy: from coastal areas to the metropolitan city of Rome, summer 2017,

in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,

vol. 22,

n. 44,

2017
Betta, Monica; Laurino, Marco; Pugliese, Andrea; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Landi, Alberto; Manfredi, Piero,

Perspectives on optimal control of varicella and herpes zoster by mass routine varicella vaccination,

in «PROCEEDINGS - ROYAL SOCIETY. BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES»,

vol. 283,

n. 1826,

2016

, pp. 20160054 -
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano; Manfredi, Piero,

The Epidemiology of Herpes Zoster After Varicella Immunization Under Different Biological Hypotheses: Perspectives From Mathematical Modeling,

in «AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY»,

2016

, pp. kwv240 -
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Baldacchino, Frédéric Alexandre; Metz, Markus; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Pugliese, Andrea; Rosà, Roberto; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano,

Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae),

in «PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES»,

vol. 10,

n. 6,

2016

, pp. e0004762 -
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Baldacchino, Frederic; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano,

Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations,

in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,

vol. 21,

n. 15,

2016
Brisson, Marc; Bénard, Élodie; Drolet, Mélanie; Bogaards, Johannes A; Baussano, Iacopo; Vänskä, Simopekka; Jit, Mark; Boily, Marie Claude; Smith, Megan A; Berkhof, Johannes; Canfell, Karen; Chesson, Harrell W; Burger, Emily A; Choi, Yoon H; Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben De; Vlas, Sake J. De; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Hontelez, Jan A. C; Horn, Johannes; Jepsen, Martin R; Kim, Jane J; Lazzarato, Fulvio; Matthijsse, Suzette M; Mikolajczyk, Rafael; Pavelyev, Andrew; Pillsbury, Matthew; Shafer, Leigh Anne; Tully, Stephen P; Turner, Hugo C; Usher, Cara; Walsh, Cathal,

Population-level impact, herd immunity, and elimination after human papillomavirus vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of predictions from transmission-dynamic models,

in «THE LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH»,

vol. 1,

n. 1,

2016

, pp. e8 -

e17
Marziano V; Poletti P; Guzzetta G; Ajelli M; Manfredi P; Merler S,

The impact of demographic changes on the epidemiology of herpes zoster: Spain as a case study,

in «PROCEEDINGS - ROYAL SOCIETY. BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES»,

vol. 282,

n. 1804,

2015

, pp. 20142509 -
Guzzetta G; Ajelli M; Yang Z; Mukasa LM; Patil N; Bates JH; Kirschner DE; Merler S,

Effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis control in Arkansas,

in «JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 380,

2015

, pp. 238 -

246
Giorgio Guzzetta; Luca Faustini; Donatella Panatto; Roberto Gasparini; Piero Manfredi,

The impact of HPV female immunization in Italy: model based predictions,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 9,

n. 3,

2014
G. Guzzetta; P. Poletti; E. Del Fava; M. Ajelli; G. Scalia Tomba; S. Merler; P. Manfredi,

Hope-Simpson's Progressive Immunity Hypothesis as a Possible Explanation for Herpes Zoster Incidence Data,

in «AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY»,

vol. 177,

n. 10,

2013

, pp. 1134 -

1142
Piero Poletti;Alessia Melegaro;Marco Ajelli;Emanuele del Fava;Giorgio Guzzetta;Luca Faustini;Giampaolo Scalia Tomba;Pierluigi Lopalco;Caterina Rizzo;Stefano Merler;Piero Manfredi,

Perspectives on the Impact of Varicella Immunization on Herpes Zoster. A Model-Based Evaluation from Three European Countries,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 8,

2013

, pp. e60732 -
G. Guzzetta; D. Kirschner,

The Roles of Immune Memory and Aging in Protective Immunity and Endogenous Reactivation of Tuberculosis,

in «PLOS ONE»,

vol. 8,

n. 4,

2013

, pp. e60425 -
G. Guzzetta; M. Ajelli; Z. Yang; S. Merler; C. Furlanello; D. Kirschner,

Modeling socio-demography to capture tuberculosis transmission dynamics in a low burden setting,

in «JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY»,

vol. 289,

2011

, pp. 197 -

205
G. Guzzetta; G. Jurman; C. Furlanello,

A machine learning pipeline for quantitative phenotype prediction from genotype data,

in «BMC BIOINFORMATICS»,

vol. 11,

n. Suppl 8,

2010

, pp. S3 -
Giorgio Guzzetta; Piero Manfredi; R. Gasparini; D. Panatto; W.J. Edmunds,

On the relationship between meningococcal transmission dynamics and disease: Remarks on humoral immunity.,

in «VACCINE»,

vol. 27,

n. 25/26,

2009

, pp. 3429 -

3434

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Giorgio Guzzetta