logo

You are here

Home

Giorgio Guzzetta

Giorgio Guzzetta
Researcher
  • Phone: 0461314520
  • FBK Povo
Research interests
Infectious diseases: epidemiology and mathematical/computational modelling;
Publications
  1. Guzzetta, Giorgio; Riccardo, Flavia; Marziano, Valentina; Poletti, Piero; Trentini, Filippo; Bella, Antonino; Andrianou, Xanthi; Del Manso, Martina; Fabiani, Massimo; Bellino, Stefania; Boros, Stefano; Urdiales, Alberto Mateo; Vescio, Maria Fenicia; Piccioli, Andrea; Brusaferro, Silvio; Rezza, Giovanni; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano,
    Impact of a Nationwide Lockdown on SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility, Italy,
    in «EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES»,
    vol. 27,
    n. 1,
    2021
  2. Marziano, Valentina; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Boccuni, Fabio; Riccardo, Flavia; Bella, Antonino; Poletti, Piero; Trentini, Filippo; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Brusaferro, Silvio; Rezza, Giovanni; Iavicoli, Sergio; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano,
    Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown,
    in «PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA»,
    vol. 118,
    n. 4,
    2021
    , pp. e2019617118 -
  3. Poletti, Piero; Tirani, Marcello; Cereda, Danilo; Trentini, Filippo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Sabatino, Giuliana; Marziano, Valentina; Castrofino, Ambra; Grosso, Francesca; Del Castillo, Gabriele; Piccarreta, Raffaella; Andreassi, Aida; Melegaro, Alessia; Gramegna, Maria; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano,
    Association of Age With Likelihood of Developing Symptoms and Critical Disease Among Close Contacts Exposed to Patients With Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Italy,
    in «JAMA NETWORK OPEN»,
    vol. 4,
    n. 3,
    2021
    , pp. e211085 -
  4. Trentini, Filippo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Galli, Margherita; Zardini, Agnese; Manenti, Fabio; Putoto, Giovanni; Marziano, Valentina; Gamshie, Worku Nigussa; Tsegaye, Ademe; Greblo, Alessandro; Melegaro, Alessia; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano; Poletti, Piero,
    Modeling the interplay between demography, social contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the South West Shewa Zone of Oromia Region, Ethiopia,
    in «BMC MEDICINE»,
    vol. 19,
    n. 1,
    2021
    , pp. 89 -
  5. Manica, Mattia; Pancheri, Serena; Poletti, Piero; Giovanazzi, Giulia; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Trentini, Filippo; Marziano, Valentina; Ajelli, Marco; Zuccali, Maria Grazia; Benetollo, Pier Paolo; Merler, Stefano; Ferro, Antonio,
    The risk of symptomatic infection during a second COVID-19 wave, in SARS-CoV-2 seropositive individuals,
    in «CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES»,
    2021
  6. Yang, Juan; Marziano, Valentina; Deng, Xiaowei; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Zhang, Juanjuan; Trentini, Filippo; Cai, Jun; Poletti, Piero; Zheng, Wen; Wang, Wei; Wu, Qianhui; Zhao, Zeyao; Dong, Kaige; Zhong, Guangjie; Viboud, Cécile; Merler, Stefano; Ajelli, Marco; Yu, Hongjie,
    Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021,
    in «NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR»,
    2021
    , pp. 1009 -
    1020
  7. Poletti, Piero; Tirani, Marcello; Cereda, Danilo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Trentini, Filippo; Marziano, Valentina; Toso, Claudia; Piatti, Alessandra; Piccarreta, Raffaella; Melegaro, Alessia; Andreassi, Aida; Gramegna, Maria; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano,
    Seroprevalence of and Risk Factors Associated With SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Health Care Workers During the Early COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy,
    in «JAMA NETWORK OPEN»,
    vol. 4,
    n. 7,
    2021
    , pp. e2115699 -
  8. Manica, Mattia; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Riccardo, Flavia; Valenti, Antonio; Poletti, Piero; Marziano, Valentina; Trentini, Filippo; Andrianou, Xanthi; Mateo-Urdiales, Alberto; Del Manso, Martina; Fabiani, Massimo; Vescio, Maria Fenicia; Spuri, Matteo; Petrone, Daniele; Bella, Antonino; Iavicoli, Sergio; Ajelli, Marco; Brusaferro, Silvio; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Merler, Stefano,
    Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy,
    in «NATURE COMMUNICATIONS»,
    vol. 12,
    n. 1,
    2021
    , pp. 4570 -
  9. Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Ajelli, Marco; Trentini, Filippo; Marziano, Valentina; Cereda, Danilo; Tirani, Marcello; Diurno, Giulio; Bodina, Annalisa; Barone, Antonio; Crottogini, Lucia; Gramegna, Maria; Melegaro, Alessia; Merler, Stefano,
    Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020,
    in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,
    vol. 25,
    n. 12,
    2020
  10. Caputo, Beniamino; Russo, Gianluca; Manica, Mattia; Vairo, Francesco; Poletti, Piero; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Merler, Stefano; Scagnolari, Carolina; Solimini, Angelo,
    A comparative analysis of the 2007 and 2017 Italian chikungunya outbreaks and implication for public health response,
    in «PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES»,
    vol. 14,
    n. 6,
    2020
    , pp. e0008159 -
  11. Guzzetta, Giorgio; Vairo, Francesco; Mammone, Alessia; Lanini, Simone; Poletti, Piero; Manica, Mattia; Rosa, Roberto; Caputo, Beniamino; Solimini, Angelo; Torre, Alessandra Della; Scognamiglio, Paola; Zumla, Alimuddin; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Merler, Stefano,
    Spatial modes for transmission of chikungunya virus during a large chikungunya outbreak in Italy: a modeling analysis,
    in «BMC MEDICINE»,
    vol. 18,
    n. 1,
    2020
  12. Poletti, Piero; Tirani, Marcello; Cereda, Danilo; Trentini, Filippo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Marziano, Valentina; Buoro, Sabrina; Riboli, Simona; Crottogini, Lucia; Piccarreta, Raffaella; Piatti, Alessandra; Grasselli, Giacomo; Melegaro, Alessia; Gramegna, Maria; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano,
    Age-specific SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality ratio and associated risk factors, Italy, February to April 2020,
    in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,
    vol. 25,
    n. 31,
    2020
  13. Riccardo, Flavia; Ajelli, Marco; Andrianou, Xanthi D; Bella, Antonino; Del Manso, Martina; Fabiani, Massimo; Bellino, Stefania; Boros, Stefano; Urdiales, Alberto Mateo; Marziano, Valentina; Rota, Maria Cristina; Filia, Antonietta; D'Ancona, Fortunato; Siddu, Andrea; Punzo, Ornella; Trentini, Filippo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Stefanelli, Paola; Castrucci, Maria Rita; Ciervo, Alessandra; Di Benedetto, Corrado; Tallon, Marco; Piccioli, Andrea; Brusaferro, Silvio; Rezza, Giovanni; Merler, Stefano; Pezzotti, Patrizio,
    Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases and estimates of the reproductive numbers 1 month into the epidemic, Italy, 28 January to 31 March 2020,
    in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,
    vol. 25,
    n. 49,
    2020
  14. Manica, Mattia; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Filipponi, Federico; Solimini, Angelo; Caputo, Beniamino; Della Torre, Alessandra; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano,
    Assessing the risk of autochthonous yellow fever transmission in Lazio, central Italy,
    in «PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES»,
    vol. 13,
    n. 1,
    2019
    , pp. e0006970 -
  15. Marini, Giovanni; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Marques Toledo, Cecilia A; Teixeira, Mauro; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano,
    Effectiveness of Ultra-Low Volume insecticide spraying to prevent dengue in a non-endemic metropolitan area of Brazil,
    in «PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY»,
    vol. 15,
    n. 3,
    2019
    , pp. e1006831 -
  16. Di Ruscio, Francesco; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Bjørnholt, Jørgen Vildershøj; Leegaard, Truls Michael; Moen, Aina Elisabeth Fossum; Merler, Stefano; Freiesleben de Blasio, Birgitte,
    Quantifying the transmission dynamics of MRSA in the community and healthcare settings in a low-prevalence country,
    in «PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA»,
    2019
    , pp. 201900959 -
  17. Guzzetta, Giorgio; Minosse, Claudia; Pisapia, Raffaella; Giombini, Emanuela; Mammone, Alessia; Vairo, Francesco; Garbuglia, Anna Rosa; Scognamiglio, Paola; Capobianchi, Maria Rosaria; Merler, Stefano; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Lanini, Simone,
    Household transmission and disease transmissibility of a large HAV outbreak in Lazio, Italy, 2016–2017,
    in «EPIDEMICS»,
    vol. 29,
    2019
    , pp. 100351 -
  18. Marini, Giovanni; Arnoldi, Daniele; Baldacchino, Frederic; Capelli, Gioia; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Merler, Stefano; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Rosà, Roberto,
    First report of the influence of temperature on the bionomics and population dynamics of Aedes koreicus, a new invasive alien species in Europe,
    in «PARASITES & VECTORS»,
    vol. 12,
    n. 1,
    2019
    , pp. 524 -
  19. Marchetti, Sabina; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Flem, Elmira; Mirinaviciute, Grazina; Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo; Manfredi, Piero,
    Modeling the impact of combined vaccination programs against varicella and herpes zoster in Norway,
    in «VACCINE»,
    vol. 36,
    n. 8,
    2018
    , pp. 1116 -
    1125
  20. Guzzetta, Giorgio; Marques-Toledo, Cecilia A.; Rosà, Roberto; Teixeira, Mauro; Merler, Stefano,
    Quantifying the spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic Brazilian metropolis via transmission chain reconstruction,
    in «NATURE COMMUNICATIONS»,
    vol. 9,
    n. 1,
    2018
  21. Marini, Giovanni; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Baldacchino, Frederic; Arnoldi, Daniele; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Merler, Stefano; Rosà, Roberto,
    The effect of interspecific competition on the temporal dynamics of Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens,
    in «PARASITES & VECTORS»,
    vol. 10,
    n. 1,
    2017
    , pp. 102 -
  22. Guzzetta, Giorgio; Tagliapietra, Valentina; Perkins, Sarah E; Hauffe, Heidi C; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano; Rizzoli, Annapaola,
    Population dynamics of wild rodents induce stochastic fadeouts of a zoonotic pathogen,
    in «JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY»,
    vol. 86,
    2017
    , pp. 451 -
    459
  23. Marangi, Luigi; Mirinaviciute, Grazina; Flem, Elmira; Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Freiesleben de Blasio, Birgitte; Manfredi, Piero,
    The natural history of varicella zoster virus infection in Norway: Further insights on exogenous boosting and progressive immunity to herpes zoster,
    in «PLOS ONE»,
    vol. 12,
    n. 5,
    2017
    , pp. e0176845 -
  24. Guzzetta, Giorgio; Trentini, Filippo; Poletti, Piero; Baldacchino, Frederic Alexandre; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano; Melegaro, Alessia,
    Effectiveness and economic assessment of routine larviciding for prevention of chikungunya and dengue in temperate urban settings in Europe,
    in «PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES»,
    vol. 11,
    n. 9,
    2017
    , pp. e0005918 -
  25. Marini, Giovanni; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano,
    First outbreak of Zika virus in the continental United States: a modelling analysis,
    in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,
    vol. 22,
    n. 37,
    2017
  26. Manica, Mattia; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Filipponi, Federico; Solimini, Angelo; Caputo, Beniamino; Della Torre, Alessandra; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano,
    Transmission dynamics of the ongoing chikungunya outbreak in Central Italy: from coastal areas to the metropolitan city of Rome, summer 2017,
    in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,
    vol. 22,
    n. 44,
    2017
  27. Betta, Monica; Laurino, Marco; Pugliese, Andrea; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Landi, Alberto; Manfredi, Piero,
    Perspectives on optimal control of varicella and herpes zoster by mass routine varicella vaccination,
    in «PROCEEDINGS - ROYAL SOCIETY. BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES»,
    vol. 283,
    n. 1826,
    2016
    , pp. 20160054 -
  28. Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano; Manfredi, Piero,
    The Epidemiology of Herpes Zoster After Varicella Immunization Under Different Biological Hypotheses: Perspectives From Mathematical Modeling,
    in «AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY»,
    2016
    , pp. kwv240 -
  29. Guzzetta, Giorgio; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Baldacchino, Frédéric Alexandre; Metz, Markus; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Pugliese, Andrea; Rosà, Roberto; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano,
    Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae),
    in «PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES»,
    vol. 10,
    n. 6,
    2016
    , pp. e0004762 -
  30. Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Baldacchino, Frederic; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano,
    Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations,
    in «EUROSURVEILLANCE»,
    vol. 21,
    n. 15,
    2016
  31. Brisson, Marc; Bénard, Élodie; Drolet, Mélanie; Bogaards, Johannes A; Baussano, Iacopo; Vänskä, Simopekka; Jit, Mark; Boily, Marie Claude; Smith, Megan A; Berkhof, Johannes; Canfell, Karen; Chesson, Harrell W; Burger, Emily A; Choi, Yoon H; Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben De; Vlas, Sake J. De; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Hontelez, Jan A. C; Horn, Johannes; Jepsen, Martin R; Kim, Jane J; Lazzarato, Fulvio; Matthijsse, Suzette M; Mikolajczyk, Rafael; Pavelyev, Andrew; Pillsbury, Matthew; Shafer, Leigh Anne; Tully, Stephen P; Turner, Hugo C; Usher, Cara; Walsh, Cathal,
    Population-level impact, herd immunity, and elimination after human papillomavirus vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of predictions from transmission-dynamic models,
    in «THE LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH»,
    vol. 1,
    n. 1,
    2016
    , pp. e8 -
    e17
  32. Marziano V; Poletti P; Guzzetta G; Ajelli M; Manfredi P; Merler S,
    The impact of demographic changes on the epidemiology of herpes zoster: Spain as a case study,
    in «PROCEEDINGS - ROYAL SOCIETY. BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES»,
    vol. 282,
    n. 1804,
    2015
    , pp. 20142509 -
  33. Guzzetta G; Ajelli M; Yang Z; Mukasa LM; Patil N; Bates JH; Kirschner DE; Merler S,
    Effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis control in Arkansas,
    in «JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY»,
    vol. 380,
    2015
    , pp. 238 -
    246
  34. Giorgio Guzzetta; Luca Faustini; Donatella Panatto; Roberto Gasparini; Piero Manfredi,
    The impact of HPV female immunization in Italy: model based predictions,
    in «PLOS ONE»,
    vol. 9,
    n. 3,
    2014
  35. G. Guzzetta; P. Poletti; E. Del Fava; M. Ajelli; G. Scalia Tomba; S. Merler; P. Manfredi,
    Hope-Simpson's Progressive Immunity Hypothesis as a Possible Explanation for Herpes Zoster Incidence Data,
    in «AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY»,
    vol. 177,
    n. 10,
    2013
    , pp. 1134 -
    1142
  36. Piero Poletti;Alessia Melegaro;Marco Ajelli;Emanuele del Fava;Giorgio Guzzetta;Luca Faustini;Giampaolo Scalia Tomba;Pierluigi Lopalco;Caterina Rizzo;Stefano Merler;Piero Manfredi,
    Perspectives on the Impact of Varicella Immunization on Herpes Zoster. A Model-Based Evaluation from Three European Countries,
    in «PLOS ONE»,
    vol. 8,
    2013
    , pp. e60732 -
  37. G. Guzzetta; D. Kirschner,
    The Roles of Immune Memory and Aging in Protective Immunity and Endogenous Reactivation of Tuberculosis,
    in «PLOS ONE»,
    vol. 8,
    n. 4,
    2013
    , pp. e60425 -
  38. G. Guzzetta; M. Ajelli; Z. Yang; S. Merler; C. Furlanello; D. Kirschner,
    Modeling socio-demography to capture tuberculosis transmission dynamics in a low burden setting,
    in «JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY»,
    vol. 289,
    2011
    , pp. 197 -
    205
  39. G. Guzzetta; G. Jurman; C. Furlanello,
    A machine learning pipeline for quantitative phenotype prediction from genotype data,
    in «BMC BIOINFORMATICS»,
    vol. 11,
    n. Suppl 8,
    2010
    , pp. S3 -
  40. Giorgio Guzzetta; Piero Manfredi; R. Gasparini; D. Panatto; W.J. Edmunds,
    On the relationship between meningococcal transmission dynamics and disease: Remarks on humoral immunity.,
    in «VACCINE»,
    vol. 27,
    n. 25/26,
    2009
    , pp. 3429 -
    3434